Since General David Petraeus and his team took the Sunni insurgents out of the equation of war in Iraq by paying them off, what happened in Baghdad over the weekend has been waiting to happen. I don’t think anyone ever seriously believed the Iraqi government would try to bring 90,000 former fighters back into the fold, let alone give them money. And yet, the chewing-gum-and-duct-tape nature of Petraeus’s peace raised no alarms.
Now, it turns out, not only are the Sons of Iraq screwed, but, bound by the Status of Forces Agreement, their erstwhile benefactor is about to help the Maliki government screw them over. Here’s Petraeus’s former XO Pete Mansoor:
As I recall what I said was that the status of forces agreement would put U.S. forces into a position where they could not intervene to stop the government of Iraq from attacking the SOI. If the Iraqi Security Forces needed help once engaged against the SOI, U.S. forces could be drawn into the fight against the very people who helped us turn the war around.
I certainly hope this doesn’t come to pass, but given what we’ve just seen happen in Baghdad, the possibility is disturbing.
Altså: Et demokrati er baseret på partiernes tillid til, at vinderen ikke udnytter magten til at slå ned på oppositionen. Irak er stadig i borgerkrig, og er for nyligt gået gennem helvede. At et demokrati skulle blomstre op, når USA trækker sig ud af landet inden 2012, er derfor fantastisk naivt. Det var naivt til at begynde med, det er tre gange så naivt nu. Selvfølgelig vil al-Maliki forsøge at sætte sig tungt på magten - jeg ville sgu gøre det samme - og indtil videre går det meget godt, med USA's militærapparat i ryggen. Men USA trækker sig ud af byerne d. 30. juni, ifølge SOFA'en, så affærerne skal i orden inden da. Og selvfølgelig, når man ikke betaler løn i to måneder, og arresterer lederne af Iraks Sønner i flæng, eller driver dem ud af landet, vil nogen gå tilbage til oprørsbevægelsen. Duh.
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