Die Weimarer Republik

En Wolfgang Münchau skriver i FT om Tysklands egen stabilitetspagt, der blev skrevet ind i forfatningen for et par uger siden (nævnte den her). Ingen underskud fra 2020, altså. Det korte af det lange er, at det er åndssvagt, og at det vil skabe endnu større spændinger i euro-samarbejdet, end der allerede er.

Jeg kan se mening i langt mere kontrol med centralbankerne - vi kan simpelthen ikke risikere endnu en Greenspan - men at sætte en spændetrøje på statsbudgettet, der ikke tillader underskud overhovedet; det vil forstærke konjekturerne, og er derfor lodret dumt. Hvis det skal være, så hellere en lov, der forlanger, at regeringen sparer op i opgangstider.

What is the rationale for such a decision? It cannot be economic, for there is no rule in economics to suggest that zero is the correct level of debt, which is what a balanced budget would effectively imply in the very long run. The optimal debt-to-GDP ratio might be lower for Germany than for some other countries, but it surely is not zero.

While the balanced budget law is economically illiterate, it is also universally popular. Average Germans do not primarily regard debt in terms of its economic meaning, but as a moral issue. Der Spiegel, the German news magazine, had an intriguing report last week on the country’s young generation. One of the protagonists in its story was a young woman who had borrowed a little money to set up her own company. The company turned out to be a success, and she had began to repay the loan. And yet she said she had not felt proud of having taken on debt.

Jeg ved ikke, om Deutsche Bank har det på samme måde...

This general level of debt-aversion is bizarre. Many ordinary Germans regard debt as morally objectionable, even if it is put to proper use. They see the financial crisis primarily as a moral crisis of Anglo-Saxon capitalism. The balanced budget constitutional law is therefore not about economics. It is a moral crusade, and it is the last thing, Germany, the eurozone and the world need right now.

Keynes' lille genistreg var at se finans som et teknisk spørgsmål, og ikke et moralsk. Det er ellers normen, og inflationens dommedagsprofeter er at forveksle med de religiøse: Vi skal nok komme til at fortryde vores skørlevned - selv om historien ikke er dem til stor hjælp. Tyskernes ekstreme holdning stammer dog helt tilbage fra hyperinflationen i Weimar-Tyskland. Det trækker stadig dybe spor i nationens bevidsthed.