Irak 1991, Libyen 2011

Abu Muqawama og venner om Libyen (PDF):

The most dangerous outcome for the United States is also the most likely, which is a stalemate that prolongs U.S. and allied military intervention in Libya. The relative lack of sophistication and organization among rebel fighting forces means they may be unable to regain the momentum in Libya and defeat Gadhafi’s forces in open combat absent significant direct and indirect support from U.S. and allied militaries – which is not explicitly authorized by UNSCR 1973 and might not be supported by the U.S. Congress.

A stalemate in Libya would effectively result in a de facto partition of the country with a severely undergoverned and disorganized safe haven in eastern Libya for the rebels that could provide refuge for various militant and criminal groups capable of exporting violence and instability to other countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Such a scenario would prolong U.S. and allied military intervention as only a major Western investment in developing the independent governance, economic and security force capacity of eastern Libya would be likely to forestall this outcome. However, such an investment is highly unlikely due to the overarching fiscal constraints facing the United States and NATO countries and competing priorities.

Det gælder for alle krigsførende lande, ikke bare USA, som i øjeblikket fører en tilbagetrukken rolle. Det, man kunne gøre, var ikke at indføre sanktioner bagefter. Blot sørge for, at der ikke bombes over grænserne, når vejene er ødelagt, pigtråden spændt ud og minerne lagt i jorden. Sanktionerne mod Irak ramte almindelige borgere og gjorde ikke noget ved styret. Det samme vil gælde for Libyen, tror jeg. Hvis Gaddafi køber nyt antiluftskyts, så må det bombes ved evt. nyt udbrud af krigen. Her må man tage sit ansvar for libyernes liv og velstand alvorligt og om nødvendigt risikere egne piloter. Østen har også masser af olie og kan købe egne våben.

Hvad man vil gøre ved statsapparatet i østen ved jeg ikke. Det kan sagtens ende som et nyt fristed for kriminelle som Kosova. We can haz nation building?