Hvilken vej falder Pakistan?

Jeg kan anbefale China Hands analyse af Pakistans situation mht. IMF, Kina, Saudi-Arabien og USA. Han/hun er én, der i mine øjne griber for hurtigt til sammensværgelsesteorier. Men denne gang tror jeg, at der er noget om det. Kan ikke forklare det med andet.

Altså...

First, it’s quite likely that the U.S. government is trying to control the provision of financial aid to Pakistan in order to exert pressure on [the Pakistani] government to support and implement pro-U.S. policies more enthusiastically. And don’t be surprised if the United States is close to giving up on Pakistan’s civilian government and wouldn’t mind fomenting a national crisis that forces Army Chief of Staff Kiyani or some other military savior to step up and take over for the good of the nation. (...)

Second, the reason that neither China nor Saudi Arabia have stepped up to help out is because they feel that the Zardari government’s policy of acting as a U.S. client and signing on to the whole counter-insurgency package in Pashtun areas of Pakistan is catastrophically wrong-headed and contrary to their best interests and they wouldn’t mind your government falling either, to be replaced either by a new government headed by Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N, or some general.

Det er meget, at de vil tage chancen. Vanvittigt, faktisk. Men hvad ved jeg?

Engang var det Afghanistan, der var tumlepladsen for de centralasiatiske magter, i konstant splid og uro. Det ser nu ud til at være blevet Pakistans rolle.