Røde Oktober

Om det har noget med finanskrisen at gøre, ved jeg ikke, men den økonomiske afgrund, der har åbnet sig under Pakistan, har leveret landet til USA.

Last week, in a special briefing session of a Senate committee, Pakistani Secretary of Defense Kamran Rasool briefed lawmakers on the recent dynamics of Pakistani support for the "war on terror". Rasool openly admitted that Pakistan does not have any option but to follow US dictates, whatever they may be, because the country would collapse within three days if US financial assistance was withdrawn. His statement was widely criticized by the media and opposition parties.

Det var altså forsvarsministeren. Så Pakistan er ved at blive den nye front i Terrorkrigen. De er endda ved at få sig en Grøn By, ligesom Baghdads Grønne Zone:

Official premises in the present "Red Zone" - the president's quarters, prime minister's house, parliament, supreme court and the diplomatic enclave - are to be secured in a highly protected "Green City". This new complex will reportedly be separated from the rest of Islamabad by an enormous wall.

Med store, store militærbaser nord for Islamabad, og kilometerlange landingsbaner, og jeg skal komme efter dig. Den ineffektive pakistanske hær har iværksat en storoffensiv, først mod Bajaur, og siden mod Nordwaziristan, begge grænseprovinser. Alt dette er sket relativt ganske hurtigt. Hvorfor, og hvorfor netop Bajaur og Nordwaziristan? Åbenbart for at hjælpe McCain med at vinde præsidentvalget.

Supposedly, the frenzied US military preparations have an aspect of "October Surprise" - a longstanding term for unexpected twists that can help or hinder candidates in the month before US presidential elections.

For example, there is now an increased focus on attacks in areas where al-Qaeda leaders could potentially be spotted, arrested or killed. Rather than destroying Taliban sanctuaries or attacking the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Taliban center in South Waziristan, all focus has been on Bajaur - where a huge battle continues, causing the displacement of 500,000 residents.

Although the Pakistani military has failed to control the ground in Bajaur, preparations are now being made to assault North Waziristan, where most high-profile al-Qaeda leaders are believed to have shifted. Any al-Qaeda "successes" by US or Western forces would likely be used to the advantage of Republican candidate McCain.

Og det er jo ret bindegalt. En halv million mennesker er flygtet fra kampe, der er sat i gang pga. USAs valgcirkus. Lad ingen sige, at demokrati ikke kræver ofre, eller at valg ikke har konsekvenser. Deprimerende absurd.

Pakistan er et meget skrøbeligt land, hvor Terrorkrigen er meget upopulær. At udnytte Pakistans økonomiske krise til at militarisere og optrappe konflikten endnu mere end den allerede er, ser for mig ud til at være den direkte vej til nationens opløsning - hvilket militæret næppe vil lade ske. Der er dermed udsigt til direkte militærstyre. Via China Hand, der spekulerer i dette - og meget mere.